Incorporating Individual-Level Distributions of Exposure Error in Epidemiologic Analyses: An Example Using Arsenic in Drinking Water and Bladder Cancer

Purpose

Epidemiologic analyses traditionally rely on point estimates of exposure for assessing risk despite exposure error. We present a strategy that produces a range of risk estimates reflecting distributions of individual-level exposure.

Methods

Quantitative estimates of exposure and its associated error are used to create for each individual a normal distribution of exposure estimates which is then sampled using Monte Carlo simulation. After the exposure estimate is sampled, the relationship between exposure and disease is evaluated; this process is repeated 99 times generating a distribution of risk estimates and confidence intervals. This is demonstrated in a bladder cancer case-control study using individual-level distributions of exposure to arsenic in drinking water.

Results

Sensitivity analyses indicate similar performance for categorical or continuous exposure estimates, and that increases in exposure error translate into a wider range of risk estimates. Bladder cancer analyses yield a wide range of possible risk estimates, allowing quantification of exposure error in the association between arsenic and bladder cancer, typically ignored in conventional analyses.

Conclusions

Incorporating distributions of individual-level exposure error results in a more nuanced depiction of epidemiologic findings. This approach can be readily adopted by epidemiologists assuming distributions of individual-level exposure.

Key Words: Age Factors, Arsenicals, Environmental Exposure, Epidemiologic Methods, Monte Carlo Method, Residential Mobility, Uncertainty, Urinary Bladder

Selected Abbreviations and Acronyms: CI, confidence interval, MCL, maximum contaminant level, OR, odds ratio, TWA, time-weighted average, USGS, United States Geological Survey