Elsevier

Annals of Epidemiology

Volume 22, Issue 8, August 2012, Pages 603-606
Annals of Epidemiology

Brief communication
Death has a preference for birthdays—an analysis of death time series

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2012.04.016Get rights and content

Abstract

Purpose

To examine the relation between the day of death and the day of birth. To determine whether the “death postponement” hypothesis or the “anniversary reaction” hypothesis is more appropriate.

Methods

We analyzed data from the Swiss mortality statistics 1969–2008. Deaths below the age of 1 were excluded from the analysis. Time series of frequencies of deaths were based on differences between the day of death and the day of birth. We applied autoregressive integrated moving average modeling with intervention effects both in straight and reverse time series.

Results

The overall death excess on the day of birth was 13.8%, mainly because of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (more in women than in men) as well as suicides and accidents (in particular, falls in men). Unexpectedly, we also found an excess of deaths in cancers. An (negative) aftereffect was found in cancers, and (positive) anticipatory effects were found in falls in men.

Conclusions

In general, birthdays do not evoke a postponement mechanism but appear to end up in a lethal way more frequently than expected (“anniversary reaction”).

Introduction

The relation between the day of death and the day of birth has been the subject of controversy for almost 40 years. The background of this controversy is the role of major social occasions, such as holidays, ceremonies, birthdays, in the timing of death. In the 1970s and indeed later, Phillips and Feldman [1] as well as Phillips and Smith [2] suggested that death may be less frequent on birthdays and be postponed in such instances. Specific studies examined, for example, the postponement of suicides before birthdays [3]. However, postponement might also result in an aftereffect after the birthday.

The alternative hypothesis was labeled as the “anniversary reaction” or the “birthday blues.” It suggested that deaths occurred more frequently on birthdays. Supporting results have emerged from overall analyses on the relation between the day of birth and the day of death [4] and again also specifically in suicide data [5], [6].

However, analyses of cancer deaths [7], [8] and also some suicide studies [9], [10] have reported null results for any of the two hypotheses. Often, the research results have been limited by small samples or a limited design.

This study was set up to determine the relation between the day of death and the day of birth using a large mortality database. In particular, the study aimed to determine whether the “death postponement” hypothesis or the “anniversary reaction” hypothesis is more appropriate in different causes of death.

Section snippets

Methods

The analyses rely on data extracted from the computerized records of Swiss mortality statistics [11]. The individual records cover the period 1969–2008. The grouping of the causes of death followed the International Classification of Diseases, Eighth Revision (ICD-8) and ICD-10 classification. Switzerland used the ICD-8 coding system until 1994, and then switched to ICD-10 coding in 1995. Deaths of infants aged below 1 year were excluded.

The difference between the day of death and the day of

Results

In the analysis of the overall data, 2,380,997 deceased persons were included. As expected, most time series in this study were white noise series. In the overall time series, including all deaths, there was an excess of 13.8% at difference = 0 between the day of death and the day of birth (see Fig. 1, Table 1). The excess of deaths was similar in men (14.0%) and women (13.6%). When differentiated by age group, the excess varied between 11% and 18% in men and women older than 60 years. There

Discussion

This study related the day of death to the day of birth using data from the Swiss mortality statistics over a period of 40 years. We concluded that birthdays end lethally more frequently than might be expected. This is mainly because of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, where the effects are stronger in women than in men, and also because of suicides and accidents, where the excess is only confirmed in men. Surprisingly, cancer deaths also showed up as a birthday excess. We found

Acknowledgments

The data were extracted from the Swiss mortality records with the authorization granted by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office in Neuchâtel, Switzerland.

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